A climate mismatch? Perception versus projections

2024 is projected to be the hottest year ever recorded, following a decade of increasing temperatures. Glaciers are melting, oceans are rising, and the frequency and intensity of environmental hazards are increasing because of human-driven changes to our planet. No wonder then, that a majority of people report being worried about the climate change threat, according to the latest Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll.

And yet, our analysis points toward a climate risk perception mismatch: in many places that stand to be disproportionately affected by climate change, people are less worried, while the opposite is true in many places that might be less affected.

Do you think that climate change is a very serious threat, a somewhat serious threat, or not a threat at all to the people in this country in the next 20 years?

 

The World Risk Poll asked people this question in 142 countries. And as different countries face different climate change threats, we should expect people across the world to answer this question differently. Indeed, the latest Poll report confirms that perceptions of the climate threat vary greatly, but not in the way you might think.

Rather than alignment between projected climate risks and threat perceptions, we find a mismatch. Countries projected to be relatively less impacted by climate change tend to perceive climate change as a threat to a much larger extent than people in countries with higher climate vulnerabilities.

Comparing climate perceptions and impact projections 

The Human Development Index (HDI) measures country achievements in key dimensions of human development (health, education, and living standards), while the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Climate Impact Lab’s Human Climate Horizons data platform provides granular climate risk projections from now until the end of the century. Our studies reveal a stark imbalance: lower HDI countries, though contributing far less to human pressures on our planet, are more likely to suffer severe impacts of climate change. Conversely, very high HDI countries exert more pressure on our planet and have more resources to adapt to less severe climate change impacts.1

However, a larger share of people in high and very high HDI countries see climate change as a very or somewhat serious threat to people in their country than in low and medium HDI countries (fig. 1).

Zooming in on the countries with the highest and lowest levels of climate threat perception further reveals the disconnect between climate risk perception and projection.

Warming temperatures and extreme heat have wide-ranging impacts on key human development indicators, including our health. In eight of the ten least worried countries, climate change-related mortality rates are projected to increase over the next two decades, even under a moderate emissions scenario. In contrast, nine of the ten highest ‘threat perceiving’ countries may even see decreasing mortality rates due to more moderate temperatures (fig 2).

While this is far from a comprehensive analysis of climate threat by country, these figures point to a mismatch between projected risk and risk perception. It is important to note that countries with expected reductions in heat-related deaths should not be seen as benefiting from climate change overall, as they might be affected in other ways.2

Perceptions: why do they matter? 

The World Risk Poll sends a clear message; most people see climate change as a threat, even in the short-term. Policymakers and organisers should consider this as an opportunity for action. Still, nearly three in 10 people do not perceive climate change as a threat, and further research must investigate the causes of doubt, especially in places of high projected risk. 

As seen in the 2023-2024 Human Development Report, beliefs, attitudes, and perceptions shape human behaviour across many facets of our lives, from personal decision-making to larger societal interactions. Perceptions about others, especially our perceptions of what others might think about a certain issue, have strong implications for collective action.

For climate change, this is especially important, as addressing the challenges requires both individual and collective action, at global scale. Recent research shows that understanding and correcting misperceptions on climate change is one effective way to motivate pro-environmental behaviour change. Understanding how people think about climate risk will be a key step towards uniting humans for this defining issue of our species' future.

• 1

  See, for example, the 2023-2024 and the 2020 UNDP Human Development Reports.

• 2

  See the World Meteorological Organization’s 2023 State of the Climate Reports for Asia and Europe for details on climate change impacts in the countries with the highest perceived climate risk.